Phys.org May 18, 2023
In the next upgrade of European Centre for ECMWF’s (Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), extended-range forecasts will have 101 instead of 51 ensemble members and will run more frequently than before, at a consistent horizontal resolution of 36 km. The upgrade will lead to improvements in forecast performance across all parameters. The extended-range forecasts provide predictions up to 46 days ahead. The 51‑member ensemble in the current configuration cannot always properly capture small shifts in forecast probabilities. Doubling the ensemble size to 101 ensemble members will provide a more accurate representation of the forecast probability distribution function and, will display higher probabilities of a tropical cyclone strike over the Mozambique Channel and west and northeast of Australia than the 51-member ensemble. Extended-range forecasts will run daily rather than twice-weekly, significantly improving the quality of extended-range forecasts for days of the week other than 2 days of the week… read more.
Tropical storm strike probability maps… Credit: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)