The Rodney Brooks Rules for Predicting a Technology’s Commercial Success

IEEE Spectrum  October 25, 2018 Rodney Brooks, Chairman and CTO of Rethink and cofounder of Robotics,  presents a short list of technology projects that are now under way or at least under serious discussion. In each case he points out features that tend to make a technology easy or hard to bring to market. In pointing out the differences that make one technology harder than another he is not preaching technological defeatism but suggesting that we properly gauge the difficulty of whatever we are told could be the next big thing… read more.

Forecasting Military Technology 2020-2040

Next Big Future  October 9, 2018 In reviewing the last 20 years (2000-2020), researchers at the Brookings Institution believe only computers and robotics had revolutionary change. This would include drones. Seven categories of military technology had high change—chemical sensors, biological sensors, radio communications, laser communications, radio-frequency weapons, nonlethal weapons, and biological weapons. Technological change of relevance to military innovation may be faster and more consequential in the next 20 years than it has proven to be over the last 20. Multiple countries (most notably China and Russia) are having the resources to compete with Western nations in military innovation…read more. Open […]

The Scientific Prize Network Predicts Who Pushes the Boundaries of Science

Arxiv  August 28, 2018 Using comprehensive new data on prizes and prizewinners worldwide and across disciplines, researchers at Northwestern University examine the growth dynamics and interlocking relationships found in the worldwide scientific prize network. They focus on understanding how the knowledge linkages among prizes and scientists’ propensities for prizewinning are related to knowledge pathways across disciplines and stratification within disciplines. They found that despite a proliferation of diverse prizes over time and across the globe, prizes are more concentrated within a relatively small group of scientific elites, and ties within the elites are more clustered, a relatively constrained number of […]

Impact of AI and Mobile Internet compared to Growth of China and India 2013-2025

Next Big Future  July 20, 2018 Applications of the 12 technologies discussed in the report, Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy could have a potential economic impact between $14 trillion and $33 trillion a year in 2025. Technologies detailed in the report have been gestating for years and are familiar. A review in 2018 is that most of these are heading to the high end of the estimated impact. The overall GDP impact is less positive since there is quite a lot impact of technology is taking existing business from other technology. The report […]