Predicting terror activity before it happens

Science Daily  October 7, 2019 Researchers at Northwestern University developed an early-warning model that predicts the future lethality of a group using only a handful of events that occur soon after it emerges. Using the first 10 to 20 attacks or the first 10 to 20% of a group’s lifetime, the model provides about 60% of the explanatory power as would having a group’s complete lifetime data. They considered terror organizations like a business whose product is lethality and predict their success in producing that product based on the diversity of weapons, their sophistication and attack capabilities. Using publicly available […]