Measles and the canonical path to elimination

Science Magazine  May 10, 2019 All World Health Organization regions have set measles elimination goals. A team of researchers in the US (Johns Hopkins University, Pennsylvania State University, NIH) found that as countries progress toward these goals, they undergo predictable changes in the size and frequency of measles outbreaks. A country’s position on this “canonical path” is driven by both measles control activities and demographic factors, which combine to change the effective size of the measles-susceptible population, thereby driving the country through theoretically established dynamic regimes. The position on the path to elimination provides critical information for guiding vaccination efforts. […]