Phys.org  May 18, 2023 In the next upgrade of European Centre for ECMWF’s (Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), extended-range forecasts will have 101 instead of 51 ensemble members and will run more frequently than before, at a consistent horizontal resolution of 36 km. The upgrade will lead to improvements in forecast performance across all parameters. The extended-range forecasts provide predictions up to 46 days ahead. The 51‑member ensemble in the current configuration cannot always properly capture small shifts in forecast probabilities. Doubling the ensemble size to 101 ensemble members will provide a more accurate representation of the forecast […]