Science Daily March 9, 2023
Many of the processes necessary for daytime convection initiation (CI) are rooted in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), which numerical models struggle to accurately predict. To improve ensemble forecasts of the PBL and subsequent CI forecasts in CAM ensembles, researchers at Pennsylvania State University explored the use of underused data from both the GOES-16 satellite and the national network of WSR-88D radars. The GOES-16 satellite provides observations of brightness temperature (BT) to better analyze cloud structures, while the WSR-88D radars provide PBL height estimates and clear-air radial wind velocity observations to better analyze PBL structures. To evaluate the influence of each observation type on CI, conventional, WSR-88D, and GOES-16 observations were assimilated separately and jointly over a 4-h period and the resulting ensemble analyses and forecasts were compared with available observations for a CI event on 18 May 2018. Results showed that the addition of the WSR-88D and GOES-16 observations improves the CI forecasts out several hours in terms of timing and location for this case… read more. TECHNICAL ARTICLEÂ