The technology valley of death refers to the gap between two phases (typically basic and applied research) in the evolution of a technology where the risk is greatest that the technology will fail due to several factors, chief among them is finding a supporting body in the next phase to carry the technology. This technology transition represents the riskiest part in what is typically incremental advancements in the technology life cycle.
Technology evolution is driven by technology push and application (or market) pull, though the two drivers are not so easily separated because they can be closely interlinked. This is similar to the economic theory of supply and demand that elevate and depresse market prices but act responsively to each other in a feedback loop. In a similar way, how a technology evolves, particularly progression toward desired performance or efficiency characteristics is largely determined by the demands of the applications that it is targeted toward. Conversely, the rate at which it evolves and the resources brought to bear against it arise from the competition, work and self-interest of the innovators in that field. A primary actor in marrying these two forces is public and private investment, which ultimately acts on behalf of the market (the public, or end user) but supplies the resources to drive the technology toward market through the deployment of investment capital.
The deployment of this capital provides one of the strongest forces in technology evolution and it is for that reason that technology investors bear the bulk of the responsibility in the event of a transition failure at the valley of death. Poor investment strategies that push technology performance in areas where there is no market demand and fall short in areas where market demand is greatest are just some examples of failed technology investment strategies. The choice of backing particular technologies which for various fundamental or practical reasons are ill-suited toward their intended applications is another common example. Therefore guiding technology evolution through the valley of death, where that transition represents the introduction of a maturing technology to a population of users that is different from the previous phase requires a forward looking strategy and sophisticated forecasting. Diversified portfolio analysis of various competitive technologies, and systematic pruning and acquiring new performers within that portfolio are important upkeep tasks. But by far, the most important task in strategic technology investment is the generation of a blueprint that shows the proper timing of investment influxes and the target metrics at each milestone. This blueprint is called the technology roadmap and is the cornerstone of a strategy to pass safely through the technology valley of death.
Each technology is different. Â Market timing is important. Â At Sciligent, helping our government R&D clients negotiate safe passage through this Valley of Death is just one of many services we provide.