Phys.org   September 18, 2023 Due to the lack of long homogenous climate data and methodological frameworks, it is challenging to estimate how extreme precipitation could get and what the physical drivers are. Researchers in Switzerland developed two complementary strategies to extrapolate beyond the precipitation records: (a) statistical estimates based on fitting generalized extreme value distributions, providing their probabilistic information on return periods and, (b) ensemble boosting, a model-based re-initialization of heavy precipitation in large ensembles, providing a physical coherent storyline in space and time, however, with no direct quantification of its probability. Both show that 3-day accumulated precipitation maxima can […]