Phys.org October 13, 2023 Given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. An international team of researchers (USA – Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Princeton, Stanford, University of Tennessee, Washington State University, Northeastern University, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Tufts University, Italy, India) examined how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, […]
Tag Archives: Climatology
Near-surface permafrost could be nearly gone by 2100, scientists conclude
Phys.org September 19, 2023 Accurate understanding of permafrost dynamics is critical for evaluating and mitigating impacts that may arise as permafrost degrades in the future; however, existing projections have large uncertainties. To better understand how near‐surface permafrost may respond to future warming, an international team of researchers (US – University of Alaska, NCAR, University of Connecticut, Columbia University, — UK, Germany, Japan, Canada, France, the Netherlands, Sweden) combined a surface frost index model with outputs from the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project to simulate the near‐surface (~3 to 4 m depth) permafrost state in the Northern Hemisphere […]
Gloomy climate calculation: Scientists predict a collapse of the Atlantic Ocean current to happen mid-century
Science Daily July 25, 2023 The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and its collapse would have severe impacts on climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, […]
Researchers: We’ve Underestimated The Risk of Simultaneous Crop Failures Worldwide
Science Alert July 5, 2023 Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions, but so far this has not been quantified. The ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. An international team of researchers (USA – Columbia University, Germany) has found an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative […]
Tracking raindrops, one molecule at a time
Science Daily October 25, 2022 A team of researchers in the US (U Mass. Amherst, University of Alaska) studied the mechanisms of precipitation deuterium excess (d-excess) seasonality in low-latitudes and mid-latitudes through a new analysis of precipitation isotope databases along with climate reanalysis products and moisture tracking models. The ultimate d-excess signals are produced after complex modulations by several reinforcing or competing processes. They developed a simple seasonal water storage model to show that contributions of previously evaporated residual water storage and higher transpiration fractions may lead to relatively low d-excess in evapotranspiration fluxes during periods of enhanced continental moisture […]
Getting it to stick: Designing optimal core-shell MOFs for direct air capture
Phys.org October 11, 2022 MOFs utilize porous membranes to capture large volumes of gasses and can be designed via computational modeling rather than traditional trial-and-error. However, adsorbents designed to strongly bind CO2 nearly always bind H2O strongly. A team of researchers in the US (University of Pittsburgh, DOE) has a direct air capture (DAC) strategy to remove carbon dioxide from the air using core–shell MOF design, where a high-CO2-capacity MOF “core” is protected from competitive H2O-binding via a MOF “shell” that has very slow water diffusion. They considered a high-frequency adsorption/desorption cycle that regenerates the adsorbents before water can pass […]
Study: Four major climate tipping points close to triggering
Phys.org September 11, 2022 Climate tipping points (CTPs) occur when change in large parts of the climate system become self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold. Triggering CTPs leads to significant, policy-relevant impacts, including substantial sea level rise from collapsing ice sheets, dieback of biodiverse biomes such as the Amazon rainforest or warm-water corals, and carbon release from thawing permafrost. An international team of researchers (Sweden, UK, Germany) provides a comprehensive reassessment of all the nine policy-relevant tipping elements and their CTPs that were originally identified by Lenton et al. (2008). The team updated assessment of the most important climate tipping elements […]
Review suggests current global efforts are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C
Phys.org June 24, 2022 According to researchers in Canada human activities have caused global temperatures to increase by 1.25°C, and the current emissions trajectory suggests that we will exceed 1.5°C in less than 10 years. Though the growth rate of global carbon dioxide emissions has slowed, and many countries have strengthened their emissions targets, current midcentury net zero goals are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures. The primary barriers to the achievement of a 1.5°C-compatible pathway are not geophysical but rather reflect inertia in our political and technological systems. Both political and corporate leadership are needed […]
A huge Atlantic Ocean current is slowing down—if it collapses, La Niña could become the norm for Australia
Phys.org June 7, 2022 Climate projections suggest a weakening or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under global warming, with evidence that a slowdown is already underway. This could have significant ramifications for Atlantic Ocean heat transport, Arctic Sea ice extent and regional North Atlantic climate. However, the potential for far-reaching effects, such as teleconnections to adjacent basins and into the Southern Hemisphere, remains unclear. Researchers in Australia used a global climate model to show that AMOC collapse can accelerate the Pacific trade winds and Walker circulation by leaving an excess of heat in the tropical South Atlantic. […]
Rescued Victorian rainfall data smashes former records
Science Daily March 25, 2022 An international team of researchers (UK, Ireland) led the rainfall Rescue Project to digitize 5.2 million rainfall observations, recorded by hand on paper sheets now stored in the Met Office archives. The UK National Meteorological Archive recently scanned more than 66,000 paper sheets containing 5.28 million hand-written monthly rainfall observations taken across the UK and Ireland between 1677 and 1960. Only a small fraction of these observations was previously digitally available for climate scientists to analyze. More than 16,000 volunteer citizen scientists completed the transcription of these sheets of observations during early 2020 using the […]