Science Daily July 25, 2023
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and its collapse would have severe impacts on climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Researchers in Denmark have provided statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. They estimated a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions… read more. Open Access TECHNICAL ARTICLEÂ
Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain