Phys.org September 19, 2023
Accurate understanding of permafrost dynamics is critical for evaluating and mitigating impacts that may arise as permafrost degrades in the future; however, existing projections have large uncertainties. To better understand how near‐surface permafrost may respond to future warming, an international team of researchers (US – University of Alaska, NCAR, University of Connecticut, Columbia University, — UK, Germany, Japan, Canada, France, the Netherlands, Sweden) combined a surface frost index model with outputs from the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project to simulate the near‐surface (~3 to 4 m depth) permafrost state in the Northern Hemisphere during the mid-Pliocene warm period. This period shares similarities with the projected future climate. Their simulations demonstrated that near‐surface permafrost was highly spatially restricted during the mPWP and was 93 ± 3% smaller than the preindustrial extent. Near‐surface permafrost was present only in the eastern Siberian uplands, Canadian high Arctic Archipelago, and northernmost Greenland. The simulations provide a perspective on the potential permafrost behavior that may be expected in a warmer world… read more. TECHNICAL ARTICLE
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