Phys.org February 13, 2024
Researchers in Hong Kong assessed the performance of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models on both seasonal and interannual timescales within the historical period and investigated the future projection of ARs under different emission scenarios on a global scale. The multi-model mean results obtained using the PanLu detection algorithm consistently exhibited agreement with the observational AR climatology and captured interannual fluctuations as well as the relationships with large-scale drivers. The future projections revealed increased AR frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent and decreased landfall intervals with regional variations and seasonal fluctuations. The AR frequency increase will accelerate around the middle of the century, mid-latitude ARs are gradually shifting toward higher latitudes in both hemispheres, with Greenland experiencing a substantial increase in AR frequency and AR-induced precipitation. More frequent ARs induced heavy precipitation (HP), with regions historically characterized by lower AR occurrence also receiving a higher percentage of precipitation from ARs. An incremental decomposition highlighted the dominant role of thermal effects and relatively limited contributions from dynamical effects in AR changes… read more. Open Access TECHNICAL ARTICLEÂ
Comparison of the climatological atmospheric river… Credit: JGR Atmospheres, 31 January 2024