Phys.org February 10, 2024
One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse because of the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in complex global climate models by strong freshwater forcing, the processes of an AMOC tipping event have so far not been investigated. Researchers in the Netherlands have shown results of the first tipping event in the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the collapse. Using these results, they developed a physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC-induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Reanalysis products indicated that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping. According to the researchers the early warning signal is a useful alternative to classical statistical ones, which, when applied to their simulated tipping event, turns out to be sensitive to the analyzed time interval before tipping… read more. Open Access TECHNICAL ARTICLEÂ
AMOC collapse. Credit: SCIENCE ADVANCES, 9 Feb 2024, Vol 10, Issue 6Â