World Meteorological Organization May 27, 2021
According to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/ , produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, there is about a 40% chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level in at least one of the next five years – and these odds are increasing with time, according to a new climate update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). There is a 90% likelihood of at least one year between 2021-2025 becoming the warmest on record. This is mainly due to using an improved temperature dataset to estimate the baseline rather than sudden changes in climate indicators. It is very unlikely (10%) that the 5 year mean annual global temperature for the entire 2021-2025 period will be 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels, according to the climate update. The annual update harnesses the expertise of internationally acclaimed climate scientists and the best prediction systems from leading climate centres around the world to produce actionable information for decision-makers…read more. Related information WMO Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction
Ensemble mean forecast for 2021-2025 surface temperature. Credit: WMO