Phys.org May 14, 2021
Although it is widely accepted that climate change perturbs food productions, no systematic understanding exists on where and how the major risks for entering unprecedented conditions may occur. An international team of researchers (Finland, Switzerland) has addressed this gap by introducing the concept of safe climatic space (SCS), which incorporates the decisive climatic factors of agricultural production: precipitation, temperature, and aridity. They showed that a rapid and unhalted growth of greenhouse gas emissions (SSP5–8.5) could force 31% of the global food crop and 34% of livestock production beyond the SCS by 2081–2100. The most vulnerable areas are South and Southeast Asia and Africa’s Sudano-Sahelian Zone, which have low resilience to cope with these changes. The results underpin the importance of committing to a low-emissions scenario (SSP1–2.6), whereupon the extent of food production facing unprecedented conditions would be a fraction…read more. Open Access TECHNICAL ARTICLE
High emissions scenario: areas within and outside Safe Climatic Space for food production 2081-2100 (see comparison image for legend). Credit: Matti Kummu/Aalto University.