Phys.org September 18, 2023 Due to the lack of long homogenous climate data and methodological frameworks, it is challenging to estimate how extreme precipitation could get and what the physical drivers are. Researchers in Switzerland developed two complementary strategies to extrapolate beyond the precipitation records: (a) statistical estimates based on fitting generalized extreme value distributions, providing their probabilistic information on return periods and, (b) ensemble boosting, a model-based re-initialization of heavy precipitation in large ensembles, providing a physical coherent storyline in space and time, however, with no direct quantification of its probability. Both show that 3-day accumulated precipitation maxima can […]
Tag Archives: Severe storms
Better hurricane forecasts from use of infrared satellite measurements of cloudy skies
Phys.org November 4, 2021 An international team of researchers (USA – University of Wisconsin, NCAR Boulder, UK, Japan, China) surveyed the best practices for the observation and use of satellite infrared sounder and imager measurements demonstrating significant improvement in the forecasting of high-impact weather events such as hurricanes and typhoons. They reviewed development of satellite infrared data assimilation by various practitioners and the solutions they have deployed to better use such data in forecasts. They found that use of these cloud-cleared radiances in data assimilation improves the forecasting of high-impact weather events such as tropical cyclones and is now being applied […]
Lightning strikes may trigger short-term thinning in the ozone layer
Phys.org October 11, 2021 An international team of researchers (USA – University of Colorado, Finland) used detailed computer simulations to follow what happened in the atmosphere after Hurricane Patricia that struck Texas and Mexico in 2015 and had more than 33,000 lightning strikes over the span of just two-and-a-half hours, the May 1917 storm in the Caribbean, and the 2013 storm over Nebraska. As the storms progressed, the electron energy raining down to Earth began to react with gasses high in Earth’s atmosphere, concentrations of certain molecules in the air, including hydrogen oxides and nitrogen oxides, shot up almost at […]
Machine learning helps predict if storms will cause power outages
Science Daily August 2, 2019 Researchers in Finland collected data about the amount of power disruptions to their network from companies who have power grids through storm-prone central Finland. They sorted the storms into 4 classes, class 0 did not knock out electricity, class 1 storm cut-off up to 10% of transformers, class 2 up to 50%, and class 3 storm cut power to over 50% of the transformers. By grouping 16 different features of each storm, they were able to train the computer to recognize when storms will be damaging. The algorithm was very good at predicting which storms […]