New study disputes Hunga Tonga volcano’s role in 2023–24 global warm-up

Phys.org  July 26, 2024
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (Hunga) submarine volcanic eruption on 15 January 2022 produced aerosol and water vapor plumes in the stratosphere. An international team of researchers (Canada, USA – industry, Texas A&M) calculated the climate forcing for the 2 years after the 15 January 2022, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (Hunga) eruption using satellite observations of stratospheric aerosols, trace gases and temperatures to compute the tropopause radiative flux changes relative to climatology. The net downward radiative flux decreased compared to climatology. The Hunga stratospheric water vapor anomaly initially increased the downward infrared radiative flux, but this forcing diminished as the anomaly disperses. The Hunga aerosols cause a solar flux reduction that dominated the net flux change over most of the 2 years period. Hunga induced temperature changes produced a decrease in downward long-wave flux, ozone reduction increased total flux from mid-2022 to 2023. By the end of 2023, most of the Hunga induced radiative forcing changes disappeared. According to the researchers some disagreement in the satellite measured stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) observations which they viewed as a measure of the uncertainty, did not alter their conclusion that overall, aerosols dominate the radiative flux changes… read more. Open Access TECHNICAL ARTICLE 

Equatorial cross section of aerosols and trace gases… Credit: JGR Atmospheres, 24 July 2024

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