Nature May 8, 2024
A 2012 study showed that, from 1990 to 2007, there was a 22% increase in positive conclusions in papers; by 2007, 85% of papers published had positive results. People fail to report [negative] results, because they know they won’t get published — and when people do attempt to publish them, they get rejected. A 2022 survey of researchers in France in chemistry, physics, engineering, and environmental sciences showed that, although 81% had produced relevant negative results and 75% were willing to publish them, only 12.5% had the opportunity to do so. One factor that is leading some researchers to revisit the problem is the growing use of predictive modelling using machine-learning tools in many fields. Without a concerted effort to publish more negative results that AI can be trained on the promise of the technology could be stifled… read more