Science Daily February 22, 2019
Researchers at the City College of New York estimate the predictability horizon of monsoon precipitation amount by systematically comparing statistical forecasts made using information from different lead times before the monsoon start. Linear and nonlinear prediction methods are considered that use the leading modes of the global sea surface temperature field to forecast monsoon-season (June-September) total precipitation. Forecasts were found to outperform a climatology baseline up to at least 1 year ahead, with a nonlinear method (random forest) on average outperforming linear regression with group lasso, although with greater variability in skill across locations and years. The results suggest that monsoon prediction is possible with longer lead times…read more. Open Access TECHNICAL ARTICLEÂ
Mean monsoon-season (June-September) precipitation (mm) for South Asia, 1901-2016. Credit: Nir Krakauer