Tropical storms signaled by atmospheric waves, study finds

Phys.org February 7, 2023 Understanding and prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity on the medium range remains challenging. Researchers in the UK found that the pre-existing westward-moving equatorial waves can inform the risk of TC occurrence and intensification, based on a dataset obtained by synchronising objectively identified TCs and equatorial waves in a climate reanalysis. Globally, westward-moving equatorial waves can be precursors to 60–70% of pre-tropical cyclogenesis events, and to >80% of the events with the strongest vorticity, related to the favourable environmental conditions within the pouch of equatorial waves. They also found that when storms are in-phase with westward-moving […]

Better hurricane forecasts from use of infrared satellite measurements of cloudy skies

Phys.org  November 4, 2021 An international team of researchers (USA – University of Wisconsin, NCAR Boulder, UK, Japan, China) surveyed the best practices for the observation and use of satellite infrared sounder and imager measurements demonstrating significant improvement in the forecasting of high-impact weather events such as hurricanes and typhoons. They reviewed development of satellite infrared data assimilation by various practitioners and the solutions they have deployed to better use such data in forecasts. They found that use of these cloud-cleared radiances in data assimilation improves the forecasting of high-impact weather events such as tropical cyclones and is now being applied […]

Deep learning accurately forecasts heat waves, cold spells

EurekAlert  February 4, 2020 Researchers at Rice University have created a deep learning computer system called “capsule neural network”. During training, it examines hundreds of pairs of maps. Each map shows surface temperatures and air pressures at five-kilometers height, and each pair shows those conditions several days apart. The training includes scenarios that produced extreme weather — extended hot and cold spells that can lead to deadly heat waves and winter storms. Once trained, the system was able to examine maps it had not previously seen and make five-day forecasts of extreme weather with 85% accuracy…read more. Open Access TECHNICAL ARTICLE

Closing critical gap in weather forecasting

Science Daily  December 7, 2019 An international team of researchers (USA – NOAA, NASA, George Mason University, University of Florida, SUNY Stony Brook, Canada) reports that the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a multimodel subseasonal prediction [weather conditions 3-to-4 weeks out] experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced 17 years of retrospective (re)forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The reforecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal […]