Phys.org October 9, 2024
An international team of researchers (Austria, Germany, France, UK, Switzerland, Australia, Norway) found that achieving declining global temperatures could limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedback resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming. To protect against high-risk outcomes, they identified the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. But technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales. According to the researchers it is not certain that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks… read more. Open Access TECHNICAL ARTICLE
Adaptation-relevant timescales and overshoot. Credit: Nature volume 634, pages366–373, 9 October 2024Â