Enhancing hurricane forecasts: Simulations reveal reducing estimates of atmospheric friction improves storm predictions

Phys.org  September 27, 2024
The complex interactions of hurricane intensity and precipitation and the impacts of improving hurricane dynamics on streamflow forecasts are not well established yet. Researchers at the University of Houston addressed these gaps by characterizing the role of vertical diffusion in improving hurricane intensity and streamflow forecasts under different planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and cumulus parameterizations. They coupled the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model with the WRF hydrological model to simulate four major hurricanes in three hurricane-prone regions in the United States. A stepwise calibration reduced streamflow forecast errors. 60 coupled hydrometeorological simulations evaluated the performance of current weather parameterizations. According to the researchers their work shows that hurricane dynamics enhances flood predictions and provides new insights into the impacts of vertical diffusion on hurricane intensity and streamflow forecasts… read more. TECHNICAL ARTICLE

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