Phys.org September 24, 2024
Climate change will accelerate Arctic-Subarctic permafrost thaw which can intensify microbial degradation of carbon-rich soils, methane emissions, and global warming. To better understand the impact of permafrost thaw on future Arctic-Subarctic wildfires and the associated release of greenhouse gases and aerosols an international team of researchers (South Korea, Japan, Norway, USA – National Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Colorado) presented a comprehensive analysis of the effect of future permafrost thaw on land surface processes in the Arctic-Subarctic region using large ensemble forced by the SSP3-7.0 greenhouse gas emission scenario. Analyzing 50 greenhouse warming simulations, which captured the coupling between permafrost, hydrology, and atmosphere, they found that projected rapid permafrost thaw led to massive soil drying, surface warming, and reduction of relative humidity over the Arctic-Subarctic region. These combined processes led to nonlinear late-21st-century regime shifts in the coupled soil-hydrology system and rapid intensification of wildfires in western Siberia and Canada… read more. Open Access TECHNICAL ARTICLE
Abrupt changes in the burned area over the historical permafrost regions. Credit: Nature Communications volume 15, Article number: 7868, 24 September 2024